CSN Mineração cuts 2026 iron-ore volume guidance as freight pressure curbs lower-grade output

CSN Mineração has made a material adjustment to Brazil’s iron-ore supply outlook, announcing on 29 September that it has temporarily reduced production of lower-grade ore at the dry-processing plant of the Pires Complex in Ouro Preto, Minas Gerais. The company attributed the move to more challenging market conditions, including pressure from higher freight costs.

**Verified facts.** CSN Mineração revised its 2026 guidance for its own production and purchases of third-party ore to 39–41 million tonnes, from 45–47 million tonnes previously. At the midpoints, this is a reduction of about 6 million tonnes, or 13%. It also raised its 2026 C1 cash-cost guidance to US$25–26 per tonne, from US$22–23.50 per tonne. CSN said the operational reduction may be reversed at any time if market conditions support better margins for the lower-grade material. Reuters independently reported the announcement and described CSN Mineração as Brazil’s second-largest iron-ore exporter.

The freight backdrop is commercially significant. The Shanghai Shipping Exchange’s China Import Dry Bulk Freight Index recorded a Tubarão–Qingdao Capesize iron-ore assessment of US$41.956 per tonne on 28 September, despite a US$1.10 day-on-day decline. That benchmark is not a CSN-specific freight cost or a confirmation of the company’s fixtures, but it illustrates the scale of Brazil-to-China freight exposure facing long-haul iron-ore sellers.

**Operational interpretation.** The revised guidance combines the effect of the Pires production reduction with lower expected third-party ore purchases. It should therefore not be read automatically as a one-for-one, immediate reduction in CSN seaborne exports or in Capesize cargoes. Actual vessel demand will depend on the duration of the curtailment, available inventories, sales commitments, quality blending, the allocation between domestic and export customers, and whether the company restarts the affected plant.

**Why this matters.** For owners, charterers and operators exposed to Brazil–China iron-ore trades, the announcement is an early signal that marginal lower-grade tonnes can be withdrawn when freight and market conditions erode netbacks. Cargo planners should distinguish confirmed loading-programme changes from revised annual guidance before repositioning tonnage or revising voyage estimates. For cargo interests, terminals and claims teams, any subsequent changes in cargo quality, stockpile management, blending instructions or shipment sequencing should be documented carefully, since a temporary production response may alter the operational assumptions behind contracts without constituting a declared force-majeure event.