China coastal dry-bulk market ends October firmer after weather disruption, while ore and grain demand remain soft

China’s Ministry of Transport published the Shanghai Shipping Exchange’s October 2026 review of the domestic coastal dry-bulk market on 9 November. The report records a modest month-end recovery in freight rates after weather-related disruption, while describing generally ample vessel supply and limited cargo growth in key commodity segments.

According to the official review, the China Coastal Bulk Freight Index closed at 1,122.1 points on 30 October, 3.4% above the end of September. Its monthly average, however, was 1.7% lower month on month. The Ministry attributes the late-month strengthening principally to Typhoon Qiangpi and wind-related port closures in northern China, which temporarily tightened prompt vessel availability and affected vessel rotation.

For coal, the report says the Qinhuangdao–Zhangjiagang 40,000–50,000 dwt assessment stood at CNY32.0 per tonne on 30 October, up CNY4.3 per tonne from the previous month-end. The Qinhuangdao–Guangzhou 60,000–70,000 dwt assessment was CNY42.6 per tonne, up CNY7.0 per tonne. The report nevertheless characterises October thermal-coal demand as seasonally weak for much of the month, with buying focused largely on contracted or immediate requirements.

Iron-ore coastal freight was less supportive. The metal-ore freight index ended October at 1,059.9 points, only 0.2% above the prior month-end; its monthly average fell 3.2%. The official analysis states that construction-steel demand recovered slowly, steelmakers continued maintenance and output-control measures, and domestic port arrivals remained high. It also describes coastal ship supply as ample, with the late-month weather disruption providing only short-lived rate support.

Grain movements faced a similar imbalance, according to the report: new-season corn arrivals in northern China increased supply, while feed and processing buyers largely maintained need-based procurement. The Ministry says this kept trading subdued and corn prices under pressure.

**Why this matters:** For operators and charterers, the reported rate rise should be read as a disruption-driven tightening rather than confirmation of a broad-based cargo-demand recovery. This is an analytical inference from the Ministry’s account, not a forecast. Voyage planning and fixture decisions should therefore distinguish short-duration weather and port-closure exposure from the softer underlying ore and grain cargo picture described in the October data.